Drones and the future of war: Read the next in the series here - Defeating the drones
Towards the end of the Cold War there was what is called a “revolution in military affairs”, where the quality of western equipment far outweighed the quantity of Soviet arms, with the defeat of the Russian-supplied Iraqi army in 1991 the demonstrable point.
But as drone warfare in Ukraine evolves at terrifying speed, this thinking might have been overturned. Both sides have used hundreds of thousands of drones to unearth enemy positions or strike the opposition. All of a sudden, it's not so much the quality of these flying weapons as the sheer quantity that can be deployed.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s ingenuity has come to the fore. Its engineers have repurposed scores of drones designed for civilian use to become killers. In many cases, this has been driven by volunteer groups and public donations, a trend that now extends to Russia.
The surge in drone use in the 18-month conflict has made many traditional battlefield tactics obsolete, changing the way soldiers train on both sides.
In June unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) made for the country’s vast agricultural industry were readapted and armed with rocket-propelled grenades to target a company of Russian tanks hiding in woods behind the front line.
In a recent report, the Rusi think tank said five UAVS were sent, each carrying for rocket-propelled grenades, "destroying or seriously damaging seven of the tanks, although all of the UAVs were lost in the process”.
That told several significant stories – drones were both deadly and expendable, but they had also made the battlefield “transparent”, making it extremely hard for enemy forces to move undetected.
Before, small teams of reconnaissance soldiers would have put themselves in danger by locating Russian tanks. Light aircraft or helicopters could also do that job but also at great risk, flying at low level and threatened by machineguns or portable anti-aircraft missiles.
Drones could not only do this job, with no risk to human operators, but attack too, with lethal effect.
Finally, the attack emphasises their extremely low cost compared to the systems they target.
A Russian T-90 tank for example, costs up to $4 million, but could be vulnerable to a drone costing several thousand dollars.
“Different types of drones are having their moment in Ukraine but it’s not just one drone that is deciding the war,” said Dr Ulrike Franke, technology lead at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “It’s a cat-and-mouse game between drones and counter-drone technology in Ukraine, so you have these moments where one side has had an advantage but it doesn't necessarily last because there's always a counter-measure being developed.”
Those counter-measures can be as basic as a steel cage over a tank turret to absorb the initial blast, anti-drone nets or sophisticated electronic warfare weapons that block the signal between drone and operator.
Russia is adapting, too, adding jamming devices to tanks and, in some cases, taking a more crude approach, building “flak towers” for anti-aircraft guns inside Russia, to spot the low-flying attackers as they sneak under radar coverage.
Russia has also stepped up production of a dedicated attack drone, the Lancet, that has a 40km range and has proven a scourge to Ukrainian artillery systems and lightly armoured vehicles.
Quantity
The experts now argue that Ukraine is demonstrating that quantity now has its own quality.
“The problem is that if you have one fancy weapon and the enemy has 10,000 fancy ones, you may also need 10,000 fancy weapons,” said Dr Franke. “We need a new approach to the quantity versus quality discussion.”
With Ukraine’s forces losing an estimated 10,000 drones a month, it was also necessary to focus on cheaper systems because “the $100 million systems we are currently developing is not something you can afford to lose”, she added.
This was now leading into a huge debate among western militaries on how civilian drones can be repurposed for combat.
The “natural conclusion” of the war, suggested Keir Giles, of Chatham House think tank, was that “both sides need large numbers of drones at all tactical levels”.
He argued against the idea that Ukraine would lead to another revolution in military affairs.
“This isn't the first conflict in which the role of UAVs has been described as transformative and is changing the nature of warfare,” he said. “It is just the first in which it has been so ubiquitous and on such huge scale, that it becomes completely undeniable.”
Previous conflicts in which fleets of drones sowed chaos in enemy ranks include the Libyan civil war and the brief but bloody Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in 2020.
An early display of their potential came in February 2020 when a Syrian air strike killed dozens of Turkish soldiers. Turkey retaliated with fleets of its now famous Bayraktar TB2 drones, bypassing Syrian air defences at low altitude and destroying scores of Syrian armoured vehicles.
But drone use in the Ukraine war dwarfs these conflicts in both scale and different applications.
Nonetheless, Mr Giles warns the next big drone war might not resemble Ukraine, so we may not yet have seen the next RMA.
Supporting that argument is that neither Russia nor Ukraine has the high-altitude and long-endurance drones owned by America, Britain and other powers.
The US, for example, has a drone almost the size of a Second World War bomber, the RQ-4 Global Hawk. capable of flying for 42 hours over 25,000km, the drone can survey 100,000 sq km of land per day.
There's a good reason for this advantage – the US has unparalleled experience with unmanned vehicles, first flying drones on reconnaissance missions in 1964 at the start of the Vietnam War.
Back then, they were considered useful but suffered high loss rates. It was only after massive advances in shrinking electronic components in the 1980s and 90s that the military drone renaissance began.
“Ukraine has used unmanned vehicles because it's very economically viable and it is a much more flexible platform to make changes,” said Akshara Parakala, lead UAV analyst at Janes, the defence intelligence company. “You just need a few tweaks to give it fire-control system and the tailoring capabilities of UAVs is really easy.”
What Ukraine was also demonstrating was that armies could use small and cheap payloads, such as the RPG warhead or a grenade, with great accuracy.
The world first glimpsed this brutal cost efficiency in Iraq in 2016, when an ISIS quadcopter drone dropped a small grenade into the open hatch of an Iraqi M1A1 tank, instantly disabling the nearly $4 million vehicle.
Several years later, as Armenia and Azerbaijan clashed over Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia's high end S-300 air defence systems – optimised to track and shoot down fighter planes – proved next to useless against small kamikaze drones.
The aircraft were undetectable to the multimillion-dollar systems, several of which were destroyed.
Multiply this several times over – as is happening in Ukraine – and it’s easy to see why the US wants tens of thousands of drones.
“Even though they are more vulnerable to being intercepted if you can build loads of them, there's always a saturation point where there are so many coming in that the defences cannot cope and some will get through,” said Jeremy Binnie, a Janes expert on drones and the Middle East.
Drones can also be useful as a distraction from a real attack.
This was apparent when Ukraine deployed Bayraktar drones to focus the air defences of the Moskva missile cruiser, before anti-ship missiles were launched from the shore, eventually sinking the vessel.
The Moskva may be the most extreme example to date of a relatively low-cost drone helping to destroy a $750 million warship, but it is also true that Russia has destroyed or damaged about $10 billion worth of energy infrastructure, much of it using drone attacks.
Ukraine is countering with its own one-way attack, using Kamikaze drones, and has now also launched numerous strikes on Russian infrastructure, taking the war to a new and dangerous phase of economic attrition.
Read more on The National's series Drones and the future of war
The%20Secret%20Kingdom%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Matt%20Drummond%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAlyla%20Browne%2C%20Alice%20Parkinson%2C%20Sam%20Everingham%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
'Brazen'
Director: Monika Mitchell
Starring: Alyssa Milano, Sam Page, Colleen Wheeler
Rating: 3/5
Fixtures
Sunday, December 8, Sharjah Cricket Stadium – UAE v USA
Monday, December 9, Sharjah Cricket Stadium – USA v Scotland
Wednesday, December 11, Sharjah Cricket Stadium – UAE v Scotland
Thursday, December 12, ICC Academy, Dubai – UAE v USA
Saturday, December 14, ICC Academy, Dubai – USA v Scotland
Sunday, December 15, ICC Academy, Dubai – UAE v Scotland
Note: All matches start at 10am, admission is free
The%C2%A0specs%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dual%20synchronous%20electric%20motors%20%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E646hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E830Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ETwo-speed%20auto%20(rear%20axle)%3B%20single-speed%20auto%20(front)%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh552%2C311%3B%20Dh660%2C408%20(as%20tested)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Enow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Company Profile
Company name: Yeepeey
Started: Soft launch in November, 2020
Founders: Sagar Chandiramani, Jatin Sharma and Monish Chandiramani
Based: Dubai
Industry: E-grocery
Initial investment: $150,000
Future plan: Raise $1.5m and enter Saudi Arabia next year
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
INDIA'S%20TOP%20INFLUENCERS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBhuvan%20Bam%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.instagram.com%2Fbhuvan.bam22%2F%3Fhl%3Den%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3EInstagram%3C%2Fa%3E%20followers%3A%2016.1%20million%3Cbr%3EBhuvan%20Bam%20is%20a%2029-year-old%20comedian%20and%20actor%20from%20Delhi%2C%20who%20started%20out%20with%20YouTube%20channel%2C%20%E2%80%9CBB%20Ki%20Vines%E2%80%9D%20in%202015%2C%20which%20propelled%20the%20social%20media%20star%20into%20the%20limelight%20and%20made%20him%20sought-after%20among%20brands.%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EKusha%20Kapila%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.instagram.com%2Fkushakapila%2F%3Fhl%3Den%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3EInstagram%3C%2Fa%3E%20followers%3A%203.1%20million%3Cbr%3EKusha%20Kapila%20is%20a%20fashion%20editor%20and%20actress%2C%20who%20has%20collaborated%20with%20brands%20including%20Google.%20She%20focuses%20on%20sharing%20light-hearted%20content%20and%20insights%20into%20her%20life%20as%20a%20rising%20celebrity.%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDiipa%20Khosla%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.instagram.com%2Fdiipakhosla%2F%3Fhl%3Den%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3EInstagram%3C%2Fa%3E%20followers%3A%201.8%20million%3Cbr%3EDiipa%20Khosla%20started%20out%20as%20a%20social%20media%20manager%20before%20branching%20out%20to%20become%20one%20of%20India's%20biggest%20fashion%20influencers%2C%20with%20collaborations%20including%20MAC%20Cosmetics.%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EKomal%20Pandey%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.instagram.com%2Fkomalpandeyofficial%2F%3Fhl%3Den%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3EInstagram%3C%2Fa%3E%20followers%3A%201.8%20million%3Cbr%3EKomal%20Pandey%20is%20a%20fashion%20influencer%20who%20has%20partnered%20with%20more%20than%20100%20brands%2C%20including%20Olay%20and%20smartphone%20brand%20Vivo%20India.%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENikhil%20Sharma%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.instagram.com%2Fnikkkhil%2F%3Fhl%3Den%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3EInstagram%3C%2Fa%3E%20followers%3A%201.4%20million%3Cbr%3ENikhil%20Sharma%20from%20Mumbai%20began%20his%20online%20career%20through%20vlogs%20about%20his%20motorcycle%20trips.%20He%20has%20become%20a%20lifestyle%20influencer%20and%20has%20created%20his%20own%20clothing%20line.%3Cbr%3E%3Cem%3ESource%3A%20Hireinfluence%2C%20various%3C%2Fem%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
TOUR RESULTS AND FIXTURES
June 3: NZ Provincial Barbarians 7 Lions 13
June 7: Blues 22 Lions 16
June 10: Crusaders 3 Lions 12
June 13: Highlanders 23 Lions 22
June 17: Maori All Blacks 10 Lions 32
June 20: Chiefs 6 Lions 34
June 24: New Zealand 30 Lions 15
June 27: Hurricanes 31 Lions 31
July 1: New Zealand 21 Lions 24
July 8: New Zealand v Lions
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The specs: Lamborghini Aventador SVJ
Price, base: Dh1,731,672
Engine: 6.5-litre V12
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 770hp @ 8,500rpm
Torque: 720Nm @ 6,750rpm
Fuel economy: 19.6L / 100km
COMPANY PROFILE
● Company: Bidzi
● Started: 2024
● Founders: Akshay Dosaj and Asif Rashid
● Based: Dubai, UAE
● Industry: M&A
● Funding size: Bootstrapped
● No of employees: Nine
The candidates
Dr Ayham Ammora, scientist and business executive
Ali Azeem, business leader
Tony Booth, professor of education
Lord Browne, former BP chief executive
Dr Mohamed El-Erian, economist
Professor Wyn Evans, astrophysicist
Dr Mark Mann, scientist
Gina MIller, anti-Brexit campaigner
Lord Smith, former Cabinet minister
Sandi Toksvig, broadcaster
David Haye record
Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4
Overview
Cricket World Cup League Two: Nepal, Oman, United States tri-series, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu
Fixtures
Wednesday February 5, Oman v Nepal
Thursday, February 6, Oman v United States
Saturday, February 8, United States v Nepal
Sunday, February 9, Oman v Nepal
Tuesday, February 11, Oman v United States
Wednesday, February 12, United States v Nepal
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
Real Madrid 1
Ronaldo (87')
Athletic Bilbao 1
Williams (14')
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
Tips to stay safe during hot weather
- Stay hydrated: Drink plenty of fluids, especially water. Avoid alcohol and caffeine, which can increase dehydration.
- Seek cool environments: Use air conditioning, fans, or visit community spaces with climate control.
- Limit outdoor activities: Avoid strenuous activity during peak heat. If outside, seek shade and wear a wide-brimmed hat.
- Dress appropriately: Wear lightweight, loose and light-coloured clothing to facilitate heat loss.
- Check on vulnerable people: Regularly check in on elderly neighbours, young children and those with health conditions.
- Home adaptations: Use blinds or curtains to block sunlight, avoid using ovens or stoves, and ventilate living spaces during cooler hours.
- Recognise heat illness: Learn the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke (dizziness, confusion, rapid pulse, nausea), and seek medical attention if symptoms occur.
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
More coverage from the Future Forum
RESULTS
Manchester United 2
Anthony Martial 30'
Scott McTominay 90 6'
Manchester City 0
The%20specs%3A%20Taycan%20Turbo%20GT
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDual%20synchronous%20electric%20motors%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2C108hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2C340Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle-speed%20automatic%20(front%20axle)%3B%20two-speed%20transmission%20(rear%20axle)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETouring%20range%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E488-560km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh928%2C400%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EOrders%20open%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
INFO
Everton 0
Arsenal 0
Man of the Match: Djibril Sidibe (Everton)
Our legal advisor
Ahmad El Sayed is Senior Associate at Charles Russell Speechlys, a law firm headquartered in London with offices in the UK, Europe, the Middle East and Hong Kong.
Experience: Commercial litigator who has assisted clients with overseas judgments before UAE courts. His specialties are cases related to banking, real estate, shareholder disputes, company liquidations and criminal matters as well as employment related litigation.
Education: Sagesse University, Beirut, Lebanon, in 2005.
SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.4-litre%204-cylinder%20turbo%20hybrid%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20366hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E550Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESix-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh360%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EAvailable%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
Maestro
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBradley%20Cooper%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBradley%20Cooper%2C%20Carey%20Mulligan%2C%20Maya%20Hawke%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Mina Cup winners
Under 12 – Minerva Academy
Under 14 – Unam Pumas
Under 16 – Fursan Hispania
Under 18 – Madenat
The biog
Name: Timothy Husband
Nationality: New Zealand
Education: Degree in zoology at The University of Sydney
Favourite book: Lemurs of Madagascar by Russell A Mittermeier
Favourite music: Billy Joel
Weekends and holidays: Talking about animals or visiting his farm in Australia
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
