The global economy is set to suffer the consequences of heightened trade tension and policy uncertainty, with the World Bank estimating the pace of growth to fall to the slowest level since 2008 outside of global recessions.
The Washington-based multilateral lender projects world economy to expand 2.3 per cent this year, about half a percentage point lower than the estimates at the start of the year, it said in its latest Global Economic Prospects report.
The turmoil caused by Washington’s bid to levy historic tariffs on its global trade has resulted in “growth forecasts being cut in nearly 70 per cent of all economies – across all regions and income groups”, the lender said on Tuesday.
Global growth is projected to slow to 2.3 per cent this year, about half a percentage point lower than the rate that had been expected at the start of the year. A global recession is not expected. Nevertheless, if forecasts for the next two years materialise, average global growth in the first seven years of the 2020s will be the slowest of any decade since the 1960s.
“Outside of Asia, the developing world is becoming a development-free zone,” World Bank Group’s chief economist Indermit Gill said.
Trending down for three decades
Growth in developing economies has been ratcheting down for three decades – from 6 per cent annually in the 2000s to less than 4 per cent in the 2020s.
“That tracks the trajectory of growth in global trade, which has fallen from an average of 5 per cent in the 2000s to … less than 3 per cent in the 2020s. Investment growth has also slowed, but debt has climbed to record levels,” Mr Gill added.
The World Bank forecast for the global output is even more conservative than that of the International Monetary Fund's, which in April, slashed its growth projections on tariffs hitting 100-year highs. The IMF also warned that trade tension between the world’s two largest economies and Europe would further slow growth.
The fund lowered its 2025 global growth forecast by 0.5 percentage point to 2.8 per cent.
Although Washington has paused the historic high tariffs for a 90-day period and is negotiating with China and its other trading partners including the EU, the uncertainty has already hit global economic and trade activity.
Global economic headwind is expected to hurt about 60 per cent of all developing economies this year, that are set to rise by 3.8 per cent in 2025, more than a percentage point lower than the average of the 2010s.
Low-income countries are expected to grow by 5.3 per cent this year – a downgrade of 0.4 percentage point from the forecast at the beginning of 2025, the World Bank said.
Against rising trade barriers, developing economies should “seek to liberalise more broadly by pursuing strategic trade and investment partnerships with other economies and diversifying trade – including through regional agreements”, the World Bank said.
Regional outlook
In the Middle East and North Africa region, the lender expects aggregate gross domestic product to expand 2.7 per cent this year and further strengthen to an average of 3.9 per cent in 2026 and 2027.
In East Asia and Pacific, growth is expected to slow to 4.5 per cent this year and further weaken to 4 per cent on average in the next two years.
The World Bank expects Europe and Central Asia region economy to slow to 2.4 per cent this year, edging up slightly 2.6 per cent in 2026 and 2027.
South Asian economy is set to moderate to 5.8 per cent this year, while sub-Saharan African economic output is expected to edge up slightly to 3.7 per cent in 2025, according to world Bank data.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
WORLD CUP SEMI-FINALS
England v New Zealand
(Saturday, 12pm UAE)
Wales v South Africa
(Sunday, 12pm, UAE)
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Gran Gala del Calcio 2019 winners
Best Player: Cristiano Ronaldo (Juventus)
Best Coach: Gian Piero Gasperini (Atalanta)
Best Referee: Gianluca Rocchi
Best Goal: Fabio Quagliarella (Sampdoria vs Napoli)
Best Team: Atalanta
Best XI: Samir Handanovic (Inter); Aleksandar Kolarov (Roma), Giorgio Chiellini (Juventus), Kalidou Koulibaly (Napoli), Joao Cancelo (Juventus*); Miralem Pjanic (Juventus), Josip Ilicic (Atalanta), Nicolo Barella (Cagliari*); Fabio Quagliarella (Sampdoria), Cristiano Ronaldo (Juventus), Duvan Zapata (Atalanta)
Serie B Best Young Player: Sandro Tonali (Brescia)
Best Women’s Goal: Thaisa (Milan vs Juventus)
Best Women’s Player: Manuela Giugliano (Milan)
Best Women’s XI: Laura Giuliani (Milan); Alia Guagni (Fiorentina), Sara Gama (Juventus), Cecilia Salvai (Juventus), Elisa Bartoli (Roma); Aurora Galli (Juventus), Manuela Giugliano (Roma), Valentina Cernoia (Juventus); Valentina Giacinti (Milan), Ilaria Mauro (Fiorentina), Barbara Bonansea (Juventus)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
The biog
Place of birth: Kalba
Family: Mother of eight children and has 10 grandchildren
Favourite traditional dish: Al Harees, a slow cooked porridge-like dish made from boiled cracked or coarsely ground wheat mixed with meat or chicken
Favourite book: My early life by Sheikh Dr Sultan bin Muhammad Al Qasimi, the Ruler of Sharjah
Favourite quote: By Sheikh Zayed, the UAE's Founding Father, “Those who have no past will have no present or future.”
Zayed Sustainability Prize
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
What is Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is the most popular virtual currency in the world. It was created in 2009 as a new way of paying for things that would not be subject to central banks that are capable of devaluing currency. A Bitcoin itself is essentially a line of computer code. It's signed digitally when it goes from one owner to another. There are sustainability concerns around the cryptocurrency, which stem from the process of "mining" that is central to its existence.
The "miners" use computers to make complex calculations that verify transactions in Bitcoin. This uses a tremendous amount of energy via computers and server farms all over the world, which has given rise to concerns about the amount of fossil fuel-dependent electricity used to power the computers.
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
TOURNAMENT INFO
Women’s World Twenty20 Qualifier
Jul 3- 14, in the Netherlands
The top two teams will qualify to play at the World T20 in the West Indies in November
UAE squad
Humaira Tasneem (captain), Chamani Seneviratne, Subha Srinivasan, Neha Sharma, Kavisha Kumari, Judit Cleetus, Chaya Mughal, Roopa Nagraj, Heena Hotchandani, Namita D’Souza, Ishani Senevirathne, Esha Oza, Nisha Ali, Udeni Kuruppuarachchi
The Settlers
Director: Louis Theroux
Starring: Daniella Weiss, Ari Abramowitz
Rating: 5/5
MATCH INFO
Rugby World Cup (all times UAE)
Final: England v South Africa, Saturday, 1pm
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
